Candidates do not decide who wins elections
PECKVILLE, PA – As clear as we all are about how important Tuesday's election is for our country, our families, and our communities we must also be aware of the very real social and political volatility that is likely to follow the count on Election Night. This fact is especially relevant here in Pennsylvania.
Because Republicans are likely to hold significant leads in our Commonwealth on Election Night and because a considerable number of Democratic mail-in votes are expected to be counted in the days following Election Day, it is very important for Pennsylvania voters to understand several realities that will overtake the news cycle this week:
#1. The “Red Mirage” is real.
Due to coronavirus fears, by a margin of two-to-one more Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans. This is not a partisan position; it is a proven fact. It will take days if not weeks to count every vote in Pennsylvania because of the large number of mail-in votes. This means that, because almost all Republicans will vote in person, Donald Trump could hold big electoral college and popular vote leads on Election Night.
When every legitimate vote is tallied and we reach a final count in Pennsylvania, it could very well show that what happened on Election Night was in fact a mirage. Donald Trump appeared to be in the lead but when every ballot is counted, he is not.
#2. If Trump Controls the Early Narrative.
Significant Republican leads on Election Night will open the door for Donald Trump to control the early narrative, work to build public consensus on the election outcome, and contest mail-in ballots that will invalidate many more Democrat than Republican votes.
Trump has a record of calling for mail-in votes to be thrown out. As the count was underway in the 2018 Florida governor’s race Trump tweeted: “An honest vote count is no longer possible—ballots massively infected. Must Go With Election Night!”
Millions of votes in Pennsylvania will not be counted on Election Night because the GOP-led Pennsylvania legislature does not allow any mail-in ballots to be counted until the polls open on Election Day. That means opening two sealed envelopes per ballot, flattening, and counting more than 2.6 million ballots. Voters must keep this in mind and disregard claims by Donald Trump and others claiming that the Election Night count determines the winner of Pennsylvania.
#3. Large-Scale Voter Fraud Claims Are Phony.
“Of course there is large scale voter fraud happening on and before election day. The only way [Democrats] can win Pennsylvania is to cheat on the ballots.” – Donald J. Trump
There is one word that best describes accusations of voter fraud: Phony. Donald Trump has consistently used voter fraud as a political weapon brandished to erode trust in our electoral system and to delegitimize the votes of Democrats. This will be a consistent theme on Election Night and especially in the days that follow as more Democratic mail-in ballots are counted.
The GOP strategy is in place and it is simple: launch as many doomsday voter fraud scenarios as possible; amplify the smallest issues to sow chaos; whip up pervasive uncertainty in the voting process to extend the turmoil that Donald Trump is relying on to contest mail-in ballots and delay the vote count in Pennsylvania.
All of this will happen regardless of what reality – and Trump’s own “Voting Integrity Commission,” convened by the Trump Administration to investigate voter fraud in the 2016 election – has made clear: There is no evidence to support claims of widespread voter fraud. Not now. Not ever.
#4. Republicans Will Litigate the Election Results.
Because Republicans know that mail-in ballots contain more Democratic votes that Republican votes, GOP lawyers will file suits to delegitimize mail-in votes – especially those ballots legally arriving at local election offices within the three-day window following Election Day.
Republicans are working tirelessly for the federal courts to discount late-arriving ballots while at the same time the United Postal Service has slowed down mail delivery, making large numbers of post-Election Day ballot arrivals uncountable.
While the Supreme Court has struck down other states’ requests to count ballots that were postmarked before Election Day but not received until after Election Day, Pennsylvania’s right to do so – within a three-day window – remains intact.
Further muddying the water are seven Pennsylvania counties – Beaver, Cumberland, Franklin, Greene, Juniata, Mercer and Montour (all which voted for Donald Trump in 2016) — that will wait until the day after the election to count mail-in ballots because of staffing and resource concerns. Roughly 150,000 voters in these areas have requested mail-in ballots.
Were Pennsylvania to allow for opening and counting mail-in ballots prior to Election Day, this slow-count outcome could have been avoided.
#5. Trump Tactics: The Only True Case of Voter Fraud.
By working to disenfranchise the millions of Republican and Democratic mail-in voters – including thousands of men and women serving overseas in the military – on Election Day and the days following; by claiming victory before millions of votes are counted; by contending that mail-in ballots counted after November 3 as illegitimate; by arguing arbitrarily that procedural aspects of the vote are illegitimate; by stalling vote certification past the December 8th deadline and allowing Pennsylvania’s Republican-controlled legislature to appoint electors; by spending months laying the groundwork to question the legitimacy of the election results, the one true case of voter fraud thrust upon the American people will have been carried out by Donald Trump and his henchmen.
*Whether you are Republican or Democrat, do not buy into any argument that implies people who voted according to their local laws should not have their ballot counted.
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